PRICE BEHAVIOR AND FORECASTING PRODUCER PRICES OF SHALLOTS IN THE SPECIAL REGION OF YOGYAKARTA

Authors

  • Ali Hasyim Al Rosyid UPN Veteran Yogyakarta
  • Liana Fatma Leslie Pratiwi UPN Veteran Yogyakarta

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33474/jase.v5i1.22021

Abstract

Shallots represent a significant component of Indonesia's vegetable crop production. They are widely consumed across the country, leading to an annual increase in demand. However, shallot production tends to remain stable or even decline, resulting in supply and price instability. In the Special Region of Yogyakarta, shallots are a prominent horticultural commodity with substantial production. Producer prices for shallots in this region exhibit fluctuations, particularly at the producer level compared to wholesale or consumer prices. Forecasting producer-level shallot prices utilizes the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) method, chosen for its accuracy in short-term time series prediction. Data sourced from the Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPS) via the hargapangan.id platform includes consumer prices and spans from January 2019 to May 2024. The analysis reveals that producer prices in the Special Region of Yogyakarta are influenced by previous month price increases, with the optimal ARIMA model identified as ARIMA (1,0,0) with the equation D(Y) = 21885.24 + 0.569977AR(1), as determined by the study findings.
Keywords: ARIMA, Forecasting, Producer Prices, Shallots

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Published

2024-06-30

How to Cite

Al Rosyid, A. H., & Pratiwi, L. F. L. (2024). PRICE BEHAVIOR AND FORECASTING PRODUCER PRICES OF SHALLOTS IN THE SPECIAL REGION OF YOGYAKARTA. Journal of Agricultural Socio-Economics (JASE), 5(1), 27–36. https://doi.org/10.33474/jase.v5i1.22021

Issue

Vol. 5 No. 1 (2024): Journal of Agricultural Socio-Economics (JASE)

Section

Articles

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Copyright (c) 2024 Ali Hasyim Al Rosyid, Liana Fatma Leslie Pratiwi

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Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.