The geopolitics of economic sanctions relief: U.S. strategic recalibration in a post-regime collapse scenario in Syria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33474/jisop.v7i2.24540Keywords:
United States – Syria relations, sanctions reliefAbstract
Existing research on US-Syria relations has mostly focused on strategic control and the effectiveness of sanctions under the Assad regime, leaving a theoretical gap regarding diplomatic adjustments during sudden power transitions. This study attempts to examine the strategic factors behind the US decision to lift the Caesar Act sanctions, especially after the collapse of the regime at the end of 2024. Using scenario-based qualitative analysis of diplomatic communications and this study interprets policy shifts through the lens of Structural Realism. This study shows that the rapid relocation of relations was not only driven by the lifting of international sanctions on Syria, but also by the structural imperative to fill the regional power vacuum left by the retreat of Russia and Iran. A deeper examination identifies a unique path, as economic relaxation serves to integrate the transitional government into the framework of Western security architecture, thereby counterbalancing rival hegemonies. This article concludes that in a post-conflict anarchic system, major powers use the issue of sanctions relief as a flexible state tool rather than to maintain rigid legal mechanisms, and that the sustainability of reconciliation depends on the transitional authority's ability to maintain internal legitimacy in the face of new security dilemmas.
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