Sales Forecasting Analysis of Kirana Photocopy Using the Semi-Average and Least Squares Methods

Abstract

This study aims to analyze sales forecasting for Kirana Photocopy, a micro-enterprise engaged in photocopy services, which often faces fluctuating demand influenced by seasonal cycles, academic activities, administrative needs, and digital service developments. Accurate forecasting is essential to support inventory management and reduce the risks of overstocking or stock shortages. This research applies two quantitative forecasting methods, the Semi Average method and the Least Square method to estimate future photocopy paper sales based on historical data. Data were collected through interviews, direct observation, and monthly sales records provided by the business owner. The analysis shows that both methods produce relatively consistent forecasting trends for the projected dates of June 20–22, although the Semi Average method generated slightly higher forecasts compared to the Least Square method. Overall, the results indicate that both forecasting techniques are simple, practical, and suitable for use by small businesses, provided that calculations are conducted carefully to avoid errors. The findings are expected to assist Kirana Photocopy in planning inventory, improving service efficiency, and supporting sustainable business operations.